Guo Shiliang Talks About The Initiatives Of The Central Bank And The SFC

Even though dramatic changes have taken place in the market policy environment over the weekend, there is still no way to get rid of the fact that the stock market needs to gradually shift from "mad cow" to "slow cow". In this regard, the SFC prompts that the deleveraging of the stock market is actually a warning to the market.

The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) standardizing margin trading in seven aspects, and requires no umbrella trust in any form. At the same time, the four sector also supported institutions to participate in margin trading and increased the margin target to 1100.

Affected by that effect, A50 pointed out the trend of a big dive in the evening. The biggest decline was over 6%. At the same time, the performance of the external stock market was not ideal, which created an unoptimistic external environment for the A share market.

However, under the background of a market bearish, the next day, the relevant person in charge of the SFC immediately transmitted the signal of stabilizing the market, and stressed that regulating the two financial businesses is not encouraging short selling, but not pressing the stock market.

In this regard, the SFC promptly released a stable signal, giving investors a reassurance. At this point, the market extreme panic has also been alleviated to a certain extent.

It is worth noting that in the market confusion, the heavy policy issued by the central bank on Sunday afternoon completely changed the investor's view of the new week market. As a result, the mood of investors has also undergone tremendous changes.

Specifically, in April 19th, the people's Bank of China decided to reduce the deposit reserve ratio of RMB deposits by 1 percentage points from April 20, 2015. At the same time, it will further enhance the ability of financial institutions to support structural adjustment, and increase support for small and micro enterprises, agriculture, rural areas and farmers, as well as major water conservancy projects.

In this regard, the author believes that in view of the central bank's Quasi reduction measures, the actual upload and delivery of several important signals.

First, the downward pressure on China's economy is indeed great, and finally touched the bottom line of tolerance of the central bank.

Second, the intensity of the central bank's reduction is beyond expectations, implying that the central government intends to step up efforts to boost the economy and slow down the downward pressure on the economy.

The third is that the central bank lowered the expectation of the "deleveraging" of the SFC. At the same time, it also played a certain role in alleviating the interbank liquidity. It directly boosted the weight varieties based on banks and played a significant stimulating role in the secondary market prices.

From the Commission's release of the "deleveraging" expectation, and then to the open and stable market of the SFC's head, after the release of the central bank's ultra expected drop in policy, Chinese shareholders also experienced an unusual weekend.

However, from another point of view, investors do not have to interpret the relevant policy initiatives too much. The reasons for this are as follows.

First, the securities and Futures Commission hints at the stock market. Deleveraging The risk is actually a warning. With the continuous frenzy of the stock market, the future will not be ruled out.

Second, current A share market The rising slope is too high, which has exceeded the level of mature developed markets in Europe and the United States. In other words, the mature market abroad is up 20% a year, and a bull market will take several years or even ten years to complete. But for the A share market, months or less than a year has completed the growth of foreign mature markets over the years. Obviously, this also reflects the highly speculative color of the A share market.

Third, Central bank reduction It is not necessary to overread the impact. Excessive growth is not conducive to the development of "slow cow".

In fact, looking at the impact of the central bank's drop in the stock market on the stock market is not all that much better than the stock market. However, in the specific sector, it will directly benefit more than financial real estate, as well as non-ferrous metals and other weight plates, which will continue to drive the market. Obviously, under the market environment that has been fully activated, the stock market will not be excluded. But the short-term stock market is rising too fast, but it does not meet the central demand for the stock market.